Long story short, it did get me to Kirkwood, but it was a bit annoying to have to stop, especially the day the Manteca Supercharger was down and I was forced to drive to Folson and all the way around 50/89/88, causing an almost 2H detour. After getting my new Model 3 AWD LR, my first drive to KW I stayed conservative and stopped 10mn in Manteca to recharge 10%. After arriving, I arrived with 20% left while having driven quite hard. This gave me enough confidence that I'd be able to do it in one shot, even if that day the weather was not absolutely perfect. So, for my 2nd drive, I planned to drive in one shot, despite the less than ideal conditions (snow at the top). This was a bit risky because if the road closed at the top of 88, I'd be in trouble. My backup plan was first to beg caltrans to escort me through, and if that failed, to roll back to jackson's bus station to use their 240V/22A charger which although not that fast would give me enough charge in 30 to 60mn to make it to the folsom supercharger. Obviously, this would have sucked, but better than being totally stuck (update for 2022: Jackson now has a supercharger) Before you try to replicate this:
then it dropped and stayed at 9%
finally arrived safe and sound with 9%, happy to have made it in just 3h11 even with the snow at the top
notice the big drop compared to the predicted range
their Tesla charger is good, 10kW/48A. I didn't even know my M3 AWD could charge at 48A
otherwise, in an underground lot, charging from 110V is much slower :)